DEBRIS.COMgood for a laugh, or possibly an aneurysm

Since 2000, U.S. hybrid sales have grown at an average annual rate of 88.6 percent.

I think that’s great news. Either there are a lot more ecologically-conscious people in the country than I previously suspected, or hybrids are appealing to the mainstream. Are there any other classes of vehicle that exhibit 88% growth?

One quote from an analyst strikes me as short-sighted:

[Anthony Pratt, an analyst with J.D. Power and Associates] says he thinks demand for hybrids will peak around 2011, at 3 percent of the market, because there’s a limit to the number of customers willing to pay more for a vehicle that will save them a few hundred dollars a year on gas.

I follow his math; the difference in fuel cost between a 53 mpg hybrid (53 mpg is what I measured in my Prius test drive) and a 30 mpg non-hybrid is less than $500/year for most drivers. Over the typical ownership period of a car, most drivers would not recoup the additional money spent on a hybrid.

But won’t gas prices go up? Worldwide oil production will peak next year. Who believes the oil companies will lower prices when overall production declines annually?

Won’t hybrid prices come down, as manufacturers realize economies of scale?

Won’t the price premiums evaporate when consumers have a dozen models of hybrid to select from, rather than two?

Won’t the poor air quality in cities inspire health-conscious people to look for vehicles that pollute less in traffic?

Personally I think hybrids make good sense for some drivers right now, and they’ll make even better sense over the next 3 years when driving a hybrid (like installing PV) becomes a financial win. Pratt seems to think, based on the quote above, that hybrids will be luxury option for a tiny percentage of drivers. I disagree.